Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
