Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
